We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are

Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,





Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Addicted to Debt? Where Do We Go From Here?

Earnings Aren't What They Used to Be


Dan Amoss
The Daily Reckoning


As Wall Street's big money players return from the Hamptons in the coming weeks, they will have to reassess the earnings power of their portfolio companies. Last week, Staples confirmed the message we heard from Office Depot and Office Max: the small business sector as a whole isn't very healthy. Disappointing earnings from Dell dampen the mood even further.

The recent economic data adds to the case that the economy is slowing rapidly. It turns out that Obama stimulus plans didn't stimulate much of anything except the budget deficit.

Yet despite all we've been through, most policymakers and commentators remain confused and frustrated because they've misdiagnosed the root causes of the financial crisis. The seeds of today's economy were sown in the credit bubble of 2000s, which, thanks to government policies and central banks, grew far bigger than it ever could have grown if a free market truly existed.

We'll hear a lot more from policymakers about how the economy is approaching "stall speed," implying that it needs another shot of stimulus fuel. They haven't taken the time to consider how the original stimulus plan might have undermined the economy's foundational strength. The economy is not a machine to be tinkered with, but a complex, uncontrollable entity that seeks to allocate capital to its most needed uses.

The endless stream of Washington's tone-deaf policies makes it almost impossible to plan. Growing regulatory burdens for small businesses is a huge problem for the labor market. I've heard from a half dozen sources in the past few weeks about soaring premiums as health insurance plans come up for renewal. Thanks to the mandates in the newly signed healthcare law, premiums will keep rising. The law had the effect of increasing the cost of hiring new employees, so we shouldn't be surprised that layoffs still exceeding new hiring - even this far into "the recovery."

As much as I'd prefer a return to smaller government - for the sake of our economy's long-run health and competitiveness - here's what I expect to happen: further weakness in GDP, employment, and the stock market will reduce the political momentum behind fiscal responsibility, and sometime in 2011, we'll have another stimulus plan. Maybe it'll come in the form of extension of the Bush tax cuts, with a political compromise resulting in rebate checks or payroll tax holidays for working class voters who aren't paying much, if any tax as it is.

Perhaps, as a flanking maneuver in its war on deflation, the Fed will finance these checks with the printing press. Further quantitative easing in the bond markets to suppress the long end of the yield curve is nothing but a giveaway to the big banks' trading desks and a subsidy for government borrowing costs. So the Fed is probably thinking about ways to more effectively get newly printed money into the hands of consumers. But the Fed needs to be very careful about such novel, creative ways to steal from savers. It could spark a crash in confidence in the US dollar. It's a giant game of chicken, and it's dangerous.

But I doubt there will be much political support for these tactics until conditions in risk assets - stocks, corporate bonds, and housing prices - get much worse. I doubt that the average voter realizes what the economy would look like without the federal deficit running continuously at 10% of GDP, like it will this year. On the other hand, a slashed deficit would be extremely painful for every single household and business - even those that have behaved responsibly - because it would translate into less business sales, less desire to hire, and lower household income.

This is why you shouldn't get the economy addicted to harebrained schemes cooked up by economics professors in the first place. The professors espousing Keynesian stimulus are like street corner drug dealers, and they have the economy hooked to their product: stimulus injections.

As a result, the economy is still unable to produce legitimate economic growth or sustainable job creation. US stocks remain a very risky asset.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Cost of Government Highest Ever in 2010

From Newsmax:

American workers spent the first 231 days of this year toiling to pay off the costs of state, local, and federal governments, leaving just 4 1/2 months to provide for themselves and their families.

Each year, the Americans for Tax Reform Foundation and its Center for Fiscal Accountability calculate the day on which average Americans have paid off their share of the cost of government spending and regulations. This year that day fell on Aug. 19, eight days later than last year and the latest Cost of Government Day ever recorded, according to Mattie Corrao, government affairs manager for Americans for Tax Reform.

"The fact that Cost of Government Day falls in the later part of August is alarming enough. It is even more harrowing that the 2010 Cost of Government Day constitutes a 34-day jump from COGD just two short years ago, when it fell on July 16," said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.

"This illustrates the ballooning growth of government, and should be of serious concern to taxpayers who are footing the ever-expanding bill."

The growing insolvency of state budgets, “coupled with exploding wages and benefits for government workers, continues to push the costs of state and local governments higher,” Corrao wrote for the Budget & Tax News website. “Across the nation, state taxes were raised by a net of $23.9 billion” in fiscal year 2010.

Between 1998 and 2008, the 10 states with the highest tax burdens — California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, Ohio, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — lost more than 3 million residents, who took with them $92 billion in income.

During the same period, the nine states with no income tax — Florida, Nevada, Alaska, Texas, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Washington, South Dakota, and Wyoming — gained 2.3 million new residents and $92 billion in wealth.

Corrao concludes: “Public pay and benefits remain unsustainable in many states, and spending will have to be limited if these states are to compete for the best and most productive individuals.”

Saturday, August 21, 2010

This Sums up the Economic Situation in the U.S

From the S&A Digest -

If the unemployment claims figure was not bad enough, the Philly Fed survey was even worse... I thought it was a misprint! – Legendary trader Dennis Gartman in the August 20 issue of The Gartman Letter.

The much-touted, government-led recovery seems to be stalling. The Philly Fed index measures manufacturing conditions in the Mid-Atlantic states. The index is set between +100 and -100. It has been as low as -40 at the depths of the recession and should be registering positive numbers based on the consensus view that the economy is recovering.

Instead, the print on the report read -7.7. Meanwhile, unemployment claims rose to 500,000, a level not seen since the fall of 2009. In short, the economy seems to be weakening again, despite all the stimulus... or perhaps because of it...

One more obvious sign of a weakening U.S. economy: the energy complex. Take a look at the chart (below) of the Dynamic Energy PowerShares ETF. This fund invests in a broad range of leading U.S. energy companies – everything from natural gas pipelines to Schlumberger.



Demand for energy is perfectly correlated with economic activity. Thus, watching these stocks gives us a window into the market's expectations of future demand. After rallying steadily off its lows in early 2009, this ETF fell off a cliff in early May. Interestingly, that's the exact point in time most of the government's tax credits for new homebuyers expired. I know from sources in the industry that foot traffic at new home sales centers came to a complete halt at the same time.

The cockroaches in Washington now face an interesting dilemma. The economy seems unwilling to move forward on the basis of private business. Corporations are hoarding cash. They're not hiring. And wealthy individuals are leaving the United States in record numbers – more than 700 people renounced their citizenship last year, up from 235 in 2008.

However, all of the government's efforts to spend its way out of this downturn have failed. We would have pointed out to them that bailing out the banks that got us into trouble and giving tax credits to build still more houses might not have been the best idea. We have yet to find a credit bubble in history that was repaired by borrowing more money or planting more tulips...

What will the government do? We're pretty sure it won't do the right things. Nobody seems to be in favor of vastly cutting taxes, government spending, or regulations. In fact, nobody seems to care that taxes are set to soar next year for the very people whom we need most if we're going to grow our way out of this serious economic crisis: small-business owners. Nobody seems to care that allowing capital gains and dividend taxes to soar next year will drive up the cost of capital needed to expand businesses. And nobody seems to have even noticed that adding a 55% estate tax onto the average entrepreneur's list of taxes makes it nearly impossible for most successful small businesses to be left in control of the founder's family.

Ask yourself the obvious question: Why would anyone take the risk of starting (or growing) a business when the government is going to take a total of 70% of the upside and leave you holding the bag if it doesn't work out? Why would anyone be surprised more businesses than ever are moving jobs overseas and taking the best and brightest of this country with them? If you want the rest of America to look like Detroit, just keep on trying to tax and spend our way out of this recession.

I'm concerned about these problems for one reason: There's almost no chance any of the proper policies can be passed by Congress. No one is going to vote for sensible policies because more than half of all Americans no longer pay any federal taxes on a net basis. The mob is now living at the expense of the Treasury.

That's a big problem in a democracy. America is becoming a new type of fascist state, where government employees, unions, and everyone else on the dole constitutes the largest voting block. It's not communism because the government doesn't directly control the means of production. But true private property doesn't exist in America anymore. If you don't pay taxes on it, you don't own it. And if the government decides you're not using your property the right way, it'll take it away from you. I don't know what to call this kind of regime... but I know damn well where it will lead.

How We Get Through This Mess - Thoughts From The Frontline - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

How We Get Through This Mess - Thoughts From The Frontline - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

ObamaCare: the Burden on Small Business

Michael F. Cannon is director of health policy studies at the Cato Institute and co-author of Healthy Competition: What’s Holding Back Health Care and How to Free It.

Glenn Beck - Current Events & Politics - ObamaCare: the Burden on Small Business

Financial Reform or Government Takeover - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

While I very much agree that we need serious financial regulatory reforms, I don’t believe we need a huge new government bureaucracy with over-reaching authority, in addition to the maze of regulatory agencies we already have. The agencies we have now just need to do their jobs!

Financial Reform or Government Takeover - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

A Nation of Financial Illiterates - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

A major part in making over America was the dumbing down of the masses. How else could one sell such completely wrong ideas in an election and actually win?

A Nation of Financial Illiterates - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Keep Your Healthcare Plan? Probably Not! - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

During the 2008 presidential campaign, candidate Barack Obama promised that, if elected, he would press for some form of nationalized healthcare. Time after time, he assured Americans: “If you like your healthcare plan, you can keep it; if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.” Many in Congress promised the same thing as they crafted the sweeping healthcare legislation that ultimately passed in March.

Yet on June 14 the Obama administration released an 83-page document which indicates that over half of all employer-provided health insurance plans will be effectively eliminated between now and 2014 because of the new healthcare law. For small businesses, it’s even worse. The Obama administration’s own estimates indicate that 66% or more of small businesses will abandon their healthcare insurance plans by the time ObamaCare kicks in on January 1, 2014.

Angry yet? Read on!

Keep Your Healthcare Plan? Probably Not! - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Why It's Too Darn Hot by Alan Caruba

Thankfully (?) the Mosque and the lack of jobs has drawn attention away from the temperatures this summer, but there are rumors of a kamikaze attack by the Dem's during their lame duck session in December to push through every last "promise" they made to their constituents, including the Carbon Dioxide tax.....

Why It's Too Darn Hot by Alan Caruba

Friday, August 20, 2010

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Is This What You Want to Get From Your Vote in November

I just received an email stating the platform for "conservative" candidates in November, does this resonate with you when you think about elected officials?

Balance the Budget — Congress must be forced to cut spending. SCF candidates will support a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget without raising taxes.


Repeal ObamaCare — President Obama's health care takeover is set to destroy American medicine and bankrupt our country. SCF candidates will support legislation to repeal it.


Stop Government Bailouts — Bailouts for taxpayers to reward failure and punish success. SCF candidates will stop bailouts altogether and force corporations to compete.


Ban Earmarks — Congressional earmarks are a gateway drug to higher spending. SCF candidates will ban earmarks and break Washington's addiction to pork.


Secure the Borders — The federal government has failed to enforce our nation's immigration laws. SCF candidates will seal the borders and oppose all forms of amnesty.


Defend the 2nd Amendment — The 2nd Amendment protects our ability to keep and bear arms. SCF candidates will oppose all efforts to eliminate or restrict this right.


Protect Human Life — Human life is precious and it must be protected. SCF candidates will stop all taxpayer funding for abortion.


Establish Term Limits — Our country is being destroyed by career politicians. SCF candidates will support a constitutional amendment establishing congressional term limits.

Are these principles or are they actions? There is nothing here about upholding the Commerce Clause or the 10th Amendment. Do we need more Constitution, or do we need to follow what has been written?

Federal Workers Make Twice That of Private Sector - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Aside from the military (understanding that police, fire fighters and teachers are State workers). How many of these jobs are really necessary for our society to exist?

Federal Workers Make Twice That of Private Sector - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Exposing the Hollow Men

Exposing the Hollow Men

CBO: U.S. Debt Crisis On The Horizon - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

CBO: U.S. Debt Crisis On The Horizon - Forecasts & Trends - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

The Stimulus is Dead - Long Live the Stimulus

Signs of a failure are everywhere, look at the 4G IPhone and compare those actions to the Fed's....

The Stimulus is Dead - Long Live the Stimulus

The Gulf Oil Spill Disaster - Thoughts From The Frontline - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

Whether you think it was intentional to further an agenda or just plain incompetence, this is another clear example of why the decision making must be kept as close to the source of the transaction as possible. Whether it is health care, education or dealing with a disaster, the further removed the decision-making body is from the problem, the greater the liklihood of absolute failure. The founders knew it, we must wake up to it...

The Gulf Oil Spill Disaster - Thoughts From The Frontline - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

I Want Your Money

Coming this fall...whether you want it or not.......



I Want Your Money

Monday, August 16, 2010

Doug Casey - MUST read bit from Doug Casey on unemployment

From Conversations With Casey:

The government is saying the unemployment is around 10%, but that’s a fraud.

They don’t count things the same way as they did then, not even as they did in the recession of 1982. Furthermore, they should count many government employees among the unemployed, since relatively few of them produce anything that anyone would voluntarily pay for.

I’m not talking about police, garbage collectors, judges, and the like. The market would employ many of them in their current jobs even if the state were to disappear. But many of the apparatchiks filling offices not only don’t serve any useful purpose, but they actively destroy, and prevent the creation of, wealth. These people are worse than just unemployed...


Doug Casey - MUST read bit from Doug Casey on unemployment

THIS IS NOT THE 1930′S | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

Note in the chart provided in the article, as Big Government progresses, the job creation post recession becomes flatter and flatter. When I tell people that we have taxed and regulated the good economuy boosting jobs out of the economy, I get the eye roll....well people, if the government makes it to expensive to do business in Amerika, this is what you get...


THIS IS NOT THE 1930′S | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM