BY JED GRAHAM
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 3/23/2006
The public is rarely happy with Congress, but Americans have rarely been this disgusted.
Recent polling by Gallup shows just 27% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, a level not seen since Newt Gingrich and his cohorts shocked the political world and swept into power.
Democrats, who lost their 40-year grip on the House in 1994, have hope that Republicans will pay the price for voter dissatisfaction in 2006. And the low opinion of Capitol Hill is just one of the reasons they think the stars are aligned in their favor.
Back in '94, Democrats faced a tide of public opinion against President Clinton and his failed national health care plan that opponents derided as "Hillarycare."
Now President Bush's job rating, though better than Congress', is below 40%. Democrats think his failed Social Security plan mirrors the Clinton health care push.
Not Exactly 1994 Redux
There's no doubt that these uncomfortable parallels and the Iraq War have Republicans nervous. Political analysts say the GOP should be. But they also see key differences that make a Democratic takeover of the House unlikely.
Though voters are fed up with Congress, and Republicans are in charge, the approval rating for both parties is in the dumps.
A Harris Poll found that only 27% of Americans like the job Republicans are doing, but just 25% give Democrats a positive rating.
While Democrats try to tar Republicans with the "culture of corruption" label, the George Washington University Battleground poll found most voters blame both parties.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group says both parties are "sitting in a pool of gasoline." Democrats trying to ignite voter anger "are just as likely to blow themselves up," he said.
Even as voters disapprove of Congress, they tend to support their own representatives. In 1994, the anti-Washington mood turned into an anti-incumbent backlash. That hasn't happened in 2006, Goeas says. The Battleground poll found 63% of voters think their own member of Congress is doing a good job.
Incumbents Protected
Voting out a House incumbent has become a rarity. Since 1998, 98.5% of incumbents have won their re-election bids.
Most races haven't even been close. In 2004, 96% of all House races were decided by at least 10 percentage points, making it one of the least competitive elections in history, according to the Center for Voting and Democracy.
A major reason is that the time-honored tradition of gerrymander has become more sophisticated. State legislatures use computers to draw congressional district lines that are lopsidedly Republican or Democratic.
The power of incumbents has political analysts paying close attention to the number of open seats left by retiring members.
"In 1994, the numbers (of open seats) were considerable," said Stephen Hess, professor of media and politics at George Washington University.
That year, 28 Democrats retired from the House. This year, 17 Republicans are retiring.
"So far they're not terribly out of line" with typical years, though more retirements could still be announced, Hess said.
Dems Face High Hurdles
The Cook Political Report sees 24 Republican seats and 11 Democratic seats in play this year. That leaves Democrats little room for error to pick up the 15 seats they need to win back the House.
Michael Barone, the first analyst to predict the 1994 Republican takeover, wrote recently that those numbers make a Democratic takeover unlikely.
When Democrats and Republicans had sweeping victories in 1974 and 1994, respectively, "the winning parties only captured about half the seats they targeted," he wrote in U.S. News.
Prior to 1994, Barone long believed that the Democratic majority was at risk. Liberal Democrats elected in Republican areas in 1974 would eventually retire or be voted out of office. Powerful Southern Democrats would retire and give way to Republicans. Lastly, Barone was impressed by the quality of candidates recruited by Gingrich and his leadership team.
Those forces came together in 1994. The Republican Contract With America also played a role.
"The analysts would say very few people actually knew what was in the contract," Goeas said. But he believes it was essential for candidates to have a positive agenda, instead of talking about what the Democrats were doing wrong.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders have struggled to build a consensus around a 2006 agenda.
But Hess isn't so sure Democrats need their own contract. "If they're fed up enough, voters will throw the rascals out," he said.
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